Doom and Gloom?

 

An interesting article on real estate:

 

Dr. Doom, Mr. Bear and Real Estate

via Keeping Current Matters by The KCM Crew on 12/27/10

 

Trying to negotiate the current housing market is difficult. There are so many external variables impacting real estate it seems almost impossible to project where sales and prices are headed. But, there were two people who saw the challenges we are currently experiencing back in 2005-2006. They looked at the market and predicted we were in for the collapse that occurred. Who are these men? How do they see real estate today? What are they doing to take advantage of the current market?

Dr. Doom

Nouriel Roubini is a teacher at New York University. He warned that borrowers defaulting on their mortgage loans would unleash a housing bust and deep recession.

According to the Wall Street Journal Roubini is:

…the New York economist whose warnings of a housing collapse earned him the nickname “Dr. Doom” … Ever since much of his dire forecasting came true, Mr. Roubini has become one of the world’s most recognizable economists. He has been in demand as a speaker and consultant, often shuttling around the globe to advise central bankers and finance ministers.

Mr. Bear

John Paulson is the person who made a fortune betting that the subprime mortgage mess would cause the real estate market to collapse. He understands how the housing market works and knows when to buy and when to sell. What do others think of Paulson?

According to Forbes John Paulson is:

…a multibillionaire hedge fund operator and the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago. 

Why discuss these gentlemen today?

The interesting thing is that both these gurus just purchased real estate in New York. The Wall Street Journal reports Roubini:

just plunked down $5.5 million for an East Village penthouse loft, public records show … Real-estate people in New York were quick to seize on his purchase as a healthy sign for the local property market.

“Even the most bearish think our market has nowhere to go but up,” said Frederick Peters, president of Warburg Realty Partners.

“Dr. Doom is a little late to catch the bottom, but there’s still plenty of upside at this point.”

Paulson also just closed on a multi-million dollar home:

Mr. Paulson purchased a two-bedroom apartment at Olympic Tower, a luxury condominium on Fifth Avenue across the street from St. Patrick’s Cathedral and Rockefeller Center, for $2.85 million, according to public records. The 51-story building was developed by Aristotle Onassis and is popular with part-time residents from abroad.

Bottom Line

It seems that Mr. Bear and Dr. Doom are looking at the real estate market quite differently right now. Does that mean the market is at its bottom and about to turn for the better? Mr. Paulson recently put it this way:

“If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one. And if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy one.”

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